Sherman Leads Berman by 17 Points
The Feldman Group Survey Calls Sherman “Heavy Favorite” in November
A recently completed survey (July 14 – July 19, 502 sample) by pollster The Feldman Group for the Brad Sherman campaign shows Sherman with a 17 point lead over his opponent Howard Berman.
The numbers are:
Brad Sherman 46%
Howard Berman 29%
Other, not voting 5%
A memo from Feldman (attached) concludes “Sherman remains the heavy favorite in this race.”
The poll shows Sherman leading among Democrats (56% to 21%), Republicans (41% to 34%) and Independents (37% to 21%). Sherman leads among Latinos (56% to 21%) and among Jewish voters (44% to 32%).
Sherman leads in the district he currently represents 51% to 25%, and in the parts of CD30 currently represented by Henry Waxman (47% to 25%). Berman leads in the roughly 1⁄5 of CD30 that he now serves by a narrow margin of only 40% to 35%.
Sherman led Berman by a large margin (10%) in the seven-candidate June primary. The Feldman poll shows June voters who voted for someone other than Sherman or Berman, split for Sherman by a 39% to 27% margin.
Additionally, the demographics of a much higher turnout election (more Democratic, more diverse, younger) tend to strongly favor Sherman over Berman.
Voters have become increasingly firm in their preferences in this race. After balanced positive and negative messages about both candidates, Sherman’s lead increased somewhat to 49% to 25%.
Meanwhile, the Berman camp has not released the results of a poll it did in late June. “This is a strong sign that the results of their poll confirm what our poll found – that the Berman campaign is in serious trouble,” said Parke Skelton, chief strategist for the Sherman campaign. The Berman poll was reported in the FEC filings of a Berman-affiliated super PAC. That poll was donated by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates and was valued at $19,320.